Liang Su, Sun Tao, Jia Xue Song, Cao Juan Mei, Wang Xue
Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
Department of STD and AIDS Prevention, Shihezi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jun 17;20(6):e0319486. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0319486. eCollection 2025.
Understanding the non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) incidence and its trends in China is an important prerequisite for effective prevention and control of NMSC.
NMSC incidence data was collected from the Annual Report of China Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2018. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to reflect the time trend. Age-period-cohort model with the intrinsic estimator algorithm was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model with integrated nested laplace approximation was used for prediction.
The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NMSC increased from 1.02/ 100,000 to 1.63/100,000 from 2005 to 2018, showing an increasing trend with AAPC of 3.7% (95% CI: 2.5%, 4.9%). The ASIR was higher in men than in women, while the increase rate was reversed, and it was lower in rural than in urban areas, while AAPC was 1.15 times higher. The risk of NMSC incidence increased with age. The cohort effect was first to increase and then to decrease and the inflection point appeared in 1930-1934. The ASIR of NMSC in China will continue to rise during 2019-2035.
The ASIR of NMSC in China from 2005 to 2018 showed an increasing trend with age, gender, and regional differences, and will continue to increase in the future. NMSC remains a public health problem and requires continuous attention.
了解中国非黑色素瘤皮肤癌（NMSC）的发病率及其趋势是有效预防和控制NMSC的重要前提。
收集2005年至2018年中国癌症登记年报中的NMSC发病率数据。采用Joinpoint回归模型估计平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）和年度百分比变化（APC）以反映时间趋势。使用具有内在估计器算法的年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和队列效应。采用具有集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似的贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型进行预测。
2005年至2018年，NMSC的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从1.02/10万增至1.63/10万，呈上升趋势，AAPC为3.7%（95%CI：2.5%，4.9%）。男性的ASIR高于女性，而增长率相反；农村地区低于城市地区，而AAPC高出1.15倍。NMSC发病风险随年龄增加。队列效应先上升后下降，拐点出现在1930 - 1934年。2019 - 2035年中国NMSC的ASIR将持续上升。
2005年至2018年中国NMSC的ASIR随年龄、性别和地区存在差异且呈上升趋势，未来还将持续上升。NMSC仍是一个公共卫生问题，需要持续关注。
