Wang Xinwei, Li Bin, He Baoren, Yan Xipeng, Huang Linbin, Li Jinlian, Lai Rongji, Lai Mingshuang, Xie He, Mo Qiuhong, Chen Limin
The Join-Laboratory of Transfusion-Transmitted Diseases Between Institute of Blood Transfusion, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Nanning Blood Center, Nanning Blood Center, Nanning 530007, China.
The Hospital of Xidian Group, Xi'an 710003, China.
Pathogens. 2025 Jun 16;14(6):594. doi: 10.3390/pathogens14060594.
As a re-emerging disease, the worldwide burden and trends of yellow fever (YF) remain inadequately quantified. This study aims to assess the incidence of YF both globally and in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2021. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we evaluated the burden of YF. We employed an age-period-cohort model to assess the influence of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of YF from 1992 to 2021. A secondary data analysis based on GBD database showed the following: in 2021, there were 86,509 incident cases of YF. Between 1990 and 2021, the number of incident cases decreased by 74.7%, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined at an EAPC of -4.76% (95% confidence interval: -5.10 to -4.42). In 2021, the highest ASIRs of YF were observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis of age effects indicates that children aged 5-10 years old exhibit the highest incidence rate. Both period and cohort effects demonstrated a decline in morbidity risk. The decomposition analysis identified epidemiological changes as the primary factor contributing to the global reduction in the YF burden. Despite considerable reduction in incidence, YF remains a significant public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa.
作为一种再度出现的疾病，黄热病（YF）在全球范围内的负担和趋势仍未得到充分量化。本研究旨在评估1990年至2021年全球及主要流行地区黄热病的发病率。利用全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库的数据，我们评估了黄热病的负担。我们采用年龄-时期-队列模型来评估年龄、时期和队列对1992年至2021年黄热病发病率的影响。基于GBD数据库的二次数据分析显示：2021年，有86,509例黄热病发病病例。1990年至2021年期间，发病病例数减少了74.7%，而年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）以每年-4.76%的平均年度百分比变化率（EAPC）下降（95%置信区间：-5.10至-4.42）。2021年，在撒哈拉以南非洲西部、撒哈拉以南非洲中部和撒哈拉以南非洲东部观察到最高的黄热病年龄标准化发病率。年龄效应分析表明，5至10岁的儿童发病率最高。时期和队列效应均显示发病风险下降。分解分析确定流行病学变化是导致全球黄热病负担下降的主要因素。尽管发病率大幅下降，但黄热病在撒哈拉以南非洲仍然是一个重大的公共卫生威胁。
