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优化大流行控制中的隔离措施:一种用于新冠病毒传播动力学的多阶段SEIQR建模方法

Optimizing quarantine in pandemic control: a multi-stage SEIQR modeling approach to COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

作者信息

Siddig Nawal H, Al-Essa Laila A

机构信息

Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh, 11671, Saudi Arabia.

出版信息

BMC Infect Dis. 2025 Jul 1;25(1):877. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-11253-2.


DOI:10.1186/s12879-025-11253-2
PMID:40596870
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12220114/
Abstract

This study develops and applies an advanced SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Removed) model to explore the intricate dynamics of COVID-19 transmission. By incorporating a quarantined compartment into traditional epidemiological frameworks, the model offers a comprehensive examination of how isolation protocols affect pandemic progression. Key parameters such as infection rates, incubation periods, and quarantine durations are systematically analyzed to quantify their influence on the basic reproduction number (ℛ₀) and pandemic trajectory. Simulations reveal that timely and stringent quarantine interventions can reduce peak caseloads by up to 30%, delaying outbreak surges and alleviating pressure on healthcare systems. The model’s robustness is validated against empirical data, confirming its suitability as a predictive and policy-supporting tool. This research not only emphasizes the vital role of quarantine in public health management but also sets a foundational precedent for modeling future outbreaks with similar transmission profiles.

摘要

本研究开发并应用了一种先进的SEIQR(易感-暴露-感染-隔离-康复)模型,以探究新冠病毒传播的复杂动态。通过将隔离 compartment 纳入传统流行病学框架,该模型全面考察了隔离措施如何影响疫情发展。系统分析了诸如感染率、潜伏期和隔离时长等关键参数,以量化它们对基本再生数(ℛ₀)和疫情轨迹的影响。模拟结果显示,及时且严格的隔离干预措施可将病例峰值减少多达30%,延缓疫情高峰并减轻医疗系统压力。该模型的稳健性通过实证数据得到验证,证实了其作为预测和政策支持工具的适用性。本研究不仅强调了隔离在公共卫生管理中的重要作用,还为模拟具有类似传播特征的未来疫情树立了基础性先例。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/215222b34f59/12879_2025_11253_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/1fab6488c91f/12879_2025_11253_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/1856b21f9acc/12879_2025_11253_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/5948a553949f/12879_2025_11253_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/3f76fad43a74/12879_2025_11253_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/bdc1c8c1960c/12879_2025_11253_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/215222b34f59/12879_2025_11253_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/1fab6488c91f/12879_2025_11253_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/1856b21f9acc/12879_2025_11253_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/5948a553949f/12879_2025_11253_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/3f76fad43a74/12879_2025_11253_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/bdc1c8c1960c/12879_2025_11253_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6995/12220114/215222b34f59/12879_2025_11253_Fig6_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Optimizing quarantine in pandemic control: a multi-stage SEIQR modeling approach to COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

BMC Infect Dis. 2025-7-1

[2]
Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2022-1-17

[3]
Study on the SEIQR model and applying the epidemiological rates of COVID-19 epidemic spread in Saudi Arabia.

Infect Dis Model. 2021

[4]
Optimal control of a fractional order SEIQR epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence and quarantine class.

Comput Biol Med. 2024-8

[5]
Using the SEIQR model with epidemic amplifier effect to predict the final outbreak size of the COVID-19 in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.

PLoS One. 2024-12-12

[6]
A novel hybrid SEIQR model incorporating the effect of quarantine and lockdown regulations for COVID-19.

Sci Rep. 2021-12-15

[7]
Factors Associated with the Implementation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Reducing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Systematic Review.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021-4-17

[8]
A Multi-SCALE Community Network-Based SEIQR Model to Evaluate the Dynamic NPIs of COVID-19.

Healthcare (Basel). 2023-5-18

[9]
Stability analysis and optimal control of Covid-19 pandemic SEIQR fractional mathematical model with harmonic mean type incidence rate and treatment.

Results Phys. 2021-3

[10]
Non-pharmacological measures implemented in the setting of long-term care facilities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections and their consequences: a rapid review.

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021-9-15

本文引用的文献

[1]
Genomic surveillance of omicron B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 and its variants between December 2021 and March 2023 in Tamil Nadu, India-A state-wide prospective longitudinal study.

J Med Virol. 2024-2

[2]
Identify novel elements of knowledge with word embedding.

PLoS One. 2023

[3]
Behavioral dynamics of COVID-19: estimating underreporting, multiple waves, and adherence fatigue across 92 nations.

Syst Dyn Rev. 2021

[4]
Impact of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 in India: A model based study.

J Theor Biol. 2021-8-21

[5]
Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy.

Health Aff (Millwood). 2021-1

[6]
Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States.

Sci Adv. 2020-12-4

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MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020-9-18

[8]
Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?

Infect Dis Model. 2020

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Serological detection of 2019-nCoV respond to the epidemic: A useful complement to nucleic acid testing.

Int Immunopharmacol. 2020-7-30

[10]
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.

Nature. 2020-6-8

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