Kaplan P Ozge, Boyd Gale, Browning Morgan, Perl Kelly, Supekar Sarang, Victor Nadejda, Worrell Ernst
US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.
Social Science Research Institute, Department of Economics, Duke University, NC, USA.
Energy Clim Chang. 2025 Apr 22;6. doi: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190.
This paper examines the results of the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 on Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37), with specific focus on industrial decarbonization pathways. Broadly, industrial decarbonization can be delivered through a wide range of actions such as energy efficiency, circular economy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS). Remaining positive emissions in the energy system can be offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The extent to which these options are, or are not, included in the models will impact the extent to which industrial decarbonization is projected to contribute to achieving an economy-wide net-zero climate policy. If adequate actions and technological levers are included in the model structure, but are more expensive than other options, in particular CCUS and CDR, then projected industry emissions reductions play a smaller role in meeting a net-zero constraint. The distinction between "hard to decarbonize" and "hard to model" has significant policy implications. If industry is hard to decarbonize, policies should focus on innovative and cost-effective industrial technologies, CDR, or both. If industry is hard to model, there may be overlooked opportunities for decarbonization that require further exploration. There is no consensus across the models in the study regarding both the level of decarbonization that could be achieved in industry or the pathways to achieve it. We caution against drawing conclusions solely from existing models and recommend rigorous and coordinated modeling efforts to better capture industrial innovation and decarbonization strategies.
本文研究了能源建模论坛关于北美深度脱碳与高电气化情景的第37号研究（EMF 37）的结果，特别关注工业脱碳途径。广义而言，工业脱碳可通过多种行动实现，如能源效率提升、循环经济、电气化、低碳燃料、原料和能源，以及碳捕获利用与封存（CCUS）。能源系统中剩余的正排放可通过二氧化碳去除（CDR）来抵消。这些选项在模型中是否被纳入，将影响工业脱碳预计对实现全经济范围净零气候政策的贡献程度。如果模型结构中纳入了足够的行动和技术手段，但比其他选项更昂贵，特别是CCUS和CDR，那么预计的工业减排在满足净零约束方面所起的作用就较小。“难以脱碳”和“难以建模”之间的区别具有重大政策意义。如果工业难以脱碳，政策应侧重于创新且具成本效益的工业技术、CDR，或两者兼顾。如果工业难以建模，可能存在被忽视的脱碳机会，需要进一步探索。该研究中的模型对于工业可实现的脱碳水平或实现脱碳的途径并未达成共识。我们提醒不要仅从现有模型得出结论，并建议开展严谨且协调一致的建模工作，以更好地把握工业创新和脱碳战略。
