Loca Sophie L, Collins Patrick C, Garbett Amy, McGeady Ryan, Thorburn James, McGonigle Chris
School of Biological Sciences Queen's University Belfast Belfast UK.
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences Ulster University Coleraine UK.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Jun 30;15(7):e71650. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71650. eCollection 2025 Jul.
The flapper skate () is a Critically Endangered skate distributed throughout the NE Atlantic and requiring urgent conservation measures. Existing models of the flapper skate's distribution are not detailed enough to inform management. The aim of this study was to develop more highly resolved predictions of the skate's distribution across its range, building on existing studies to provide a comprehensive baseline for flapper skate presence. Location The NE Atlantic shelf region. A Bayesian spatial binomial GAMM was used to model the distribution of flapper skate across the NE Atlantic shelf. Following an exhaustive search of fisheries-independent DATRAS catch records, skate presence was modelled as a function of environmental covariates and AIS fishing pressure data. Skate presence was highest in coastal areas approximately 40-50 km from shore, where fishing pressure and benthic productivity were low. A smoother for the bathymetry variable indicated presence was highest at depths of 100-200 m. Regions with the highest predicted probability of occurrence included the north and west coasts of Scotland, and the west coast of Ireland near Counties Clare and Galway. In contrast, very low support was given for presence in the southern and central North Sea, likely reflecting historical population collapse, as well as in deeper offshore waters beyond the shelf. This study presents the first large-scale model of flapper skate presence across the NE Atlantic shelf that integrates both environmental and fishing pressure data, providing new baseline insights into habitat use in the North Sea and around Ireland. Three core regions of presence were identified, likely reflecting natural refugia from fishing and critical habitats (EFHs). Future research should prioritise these strongholds, focusing on identifying critical habitats to support focused management strategies.
扇形鳐（）是一种极度濒危的鳐类，分布于东北大西洋全域，亟需采取保护措施。现有的扇形鳐分布模型不够详细，无法为管理工作提供信息。本研究的目的是在现有研究基础上，对该鳐类在其分布范围内的分布情况进行更高分辨率的预测，为扇形鳐的存在提供全面的基线。地点：东北大西洋陆架区域。使用贝叶斯空间二项广义加性混合模型（GAMM）对扇形鳐在东北大西洋陆架的分布进行建模。在详尽搜索与渔业无关的DATRAS渔获记录后，将鳐类的存在情况建模为环境协变量和AIS捕捞压力数据的函数。鳐类的存在情况在距离海岸约40 - 50公里的沿海地区最高，这些地区的捕捞压力和底栖生产力较低。深度变量的平滑曲线表明，在100 - 200米深度处鳐类的存在情况最高。预测出现概率最高的区域包括苏格兰的北部和西海岸，以及克莱尔郡和戈尔韦郡附近的爱尔兰西海岸。相比之下，北海南部和中部以及陆架以外更深的近海区域存在鳐类的可能性非常低，这可能反映了历史上的种群崩溃情况。本研究展示了首个整合环境和捕捞压力数据的东北大西洋陆架扇形鳐存在情况的大规模模型，为北海和爱尔兰周边的栖息地利用提供了新的基线见解。确定了三个核心存在区域，这可能反映了免受捕捞的天然避难所和关键栖息地（EFHs）。未来的研究应优先关注这些据点，重点是确定关键栖息地以支持有针对性的管理策略。
