Minimum-Regret Hydrogen and Carbon Supply Chains to Decarbonize European Industrial Hydrogen Demands.

Low-carbon hydrogen (H) is envisioned to play a central role in decarbonizing European hard-to-abate industries, such as refineries, ammonia, methanol, steel, and cement. To facilitate its widespread use, low-carbon H supply chain (HSC) infrastructure is needed. However, uncertainties around future low-carbon H demands and biomass availability hamper their proliferation. This work investigates the impact of uncertainties in H demand and biomass availability on the optimal HSC design. A linear optimization model is used to determine the cost-optimal HSC design, considering a regional spatial resolution and a multiyear time horizon from 2022 to 2050. CO and biomass infrastructure is designed alongside the HSC. A scenario-based approach is used to derive minimum-regret strategies and support infrastructure development. Results show that investing in scalable H production capacity, targeting 10 Mt/a by 2030, enables flexible expansion to meet larger H demands of up to 35 Mt/a by 2050. Although biomass-based H production is most cost-effective, coupling conventional H production with carbon capture and storage or investments in electrolysis provide more flexibility. Moreover, investments in CO infrastructure are essential, often determining the ability to achieve 2050 climate targets.