Conrad Zach, Leu Matthias, Fulcher Eli, Wu Songze, DiStaso Chloe, Boston Juan, Peterson Tomalita, Roach Beth, Tupponce Tommy, Phillips Jessica, Wiipongwii Troy
Department of Health Sciences, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, 23185, USA.
Global Research Institute, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, 23185, USA.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 30;15(1):27854. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13581-4.
Indigenous communities in the United States have experienced a long history of land displacement, disrupted food systems, and inadequate federal services, which have contributed to nutrition-related health disparities. Initiatives to support Indigenous agriculture may help address these injustices, yet little is known about the agricultural crop suitability of tribal lands, especially under future climate conditions. This study fills this gap by developing geoclimatic forecasting models that quantify the agricultural potential of all 24 first-contact tribal lands in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. Geoclimatic models included stationary variables (soil texture, salinity, drainage, and pH; elevation; and slope) and dynamic variables (monthly and annual precipitation, and monthly temperature). Tribal representatives and community leaders were partners in this research to protect Indigenous data sovereignty, ensure cultural relevance of the research design, and provide tribe-specific data on land delineations. By 2040, optimal agricultural land was predicted to decrease by 27% (1.525 km) and the number of culturally relevant crop species was predicted to decrease by 36% (from 11 to 7). These findings provide context for policy initiatives that have emerged or accelerated to restore environmentally sensitive agricultural areas, support new and existing Indigenous food producers, and strengthen consumer markets for Indigenous food products.
美国的原住民社区长期经历土地被剥夺、粮食系统中断以及联邦服务不足的问题，这些都导致了与营养相关的健康差距。支持原住民农业的举措可能有助于解决这些不公正现象，但对于部落土地的农作物适宜性，尤其是在未来气候条件下，人们了解甚少。本研究通过开发地理气候预测模型填补了这一空白，该模型量化了弗吉尼亚州、马里兰州和北卡罗来纳州所有24个首次接触部落土地的农业潜力。地理气候模型包括静态变量（土壤质地、盐度、排水和pH值；海拔；以及坡度）和动态变量（月降水量和年降水量，以及月气温）。部落代表和社区领袖是这项研究的合作伙伴，以保护原住民的数据主权，确保研究设计的文化相关性，并提供特定部落的土地边界数据。到2040年，预计最佳农业用地将减少27%（1.525平方千米），与文化相关的作物种类预计将减少36%（从11种降至7种）。这些发现为已出现或加速推进的政策举措提供了背景，这些举措旨在恢复环境敏感的农业地区，支持新的和现有的原住民食品生产者，并加强原住民食品产品的消费市场。
