Ito Koichi, Kanemitsu Shunsuke, Kimura Ryusuke, Omori Ryosuke
Faculty of Science and Engineering, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-0394, Japan.
Data Solution Unit 2 (Marriage & Family/Automobile Business/Travel), Data Management & Planning Office, Product Development Management Office, Recruit Co., Ltd, Tokyo 100-6640, Japan.
R Soc Open Sci. 2025 Jul 30;12(7):250554. doi: 10.1098/rsos.250554. eCollection 2025 Jul.
Understanding the changes in human mobility in response to outbreaks is important for controlling emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This requires an understanding of the mechanism of human behavioural response as well as the timing of decisions for future mobility. However, most human mobility data only record the executed mobility that results from decision-making, and not the timing of decisions. In this study, we used accommodation reservation data to extract the decision-making process in response to the changing epidemic situation and compared it with data on executed mobility, 'stay time' in workplaces and stay time in places other than home or workplaces to clarify when people decide on their mobility. We confirmed that the decision-making process estimated from accommodation reservation data can accurately predict human mobility. The decision-making process estimated from accommodation reservation data was more strongly associated with stay time in places other than home or workplaces than stay time in workplaces. Furthermore, the comparison between the estimated decision-making process and mobility data quantitatively revealed that mobility was the result of integrating two types of decisions made in recent weeks (within two and five weeks for mobility to workplaces and places other than home or workplaces, respectively) and previous weeks.
了解人类流动性对疫情爆发的响应变化对于控制新发传染病疫情至关重要。这需要理解人类行为反应的机制以及未来出行决策的时机。然而，大多数人类流动性数据仅记录决策产生的实际出行情况，而不是决策的时机。在本研究中，我们使用住宿预订数据来提取应对疫情形势变化的决策过程，并将其与实际出行数据、在工作场所的“停留时间”以及在家或工作场所以外场所的停留时间进行比较，以阐明人们何时做出出行决策。我们证实，从住宿预订数据估计的决策过程能够准确预测人类流动性。从住宿预订数据估计的决策过程与在家或工作场所以外场所的停留时间的关联比与在工作场所停留时间的关联更强。此外，估计的决策过程与流动性数据之间的比较定量地揭示，流动性是整合近几周（分别针对前往工作场所和在家或工作场所以外场所的出行，在两周和五周内）以及前几周做出的两类决策的结果。
