Towards positive net outcomes for biodiversity, and developing safeguards to accompany headline biodiversity indicators.

Achieving the Global Biodiversity Framework will necessitate whole production systems contributing towards 'halting and reversing' net biodiversity loss, counterbalancing negative impacts with comparable gains. Here, we report on an illustrative quantitative exploration into the feasibility of monitoring for positive net biodiversity outcomes for the Dutch dairy production sector, using a composite metric. We analysed performance data from 8,950 dairy farms across the Netherlands, combining these data into an integrated biodiversity index. Usefully, this index allowed us to calculate sectoral baseline biodiversity impacts, and explore possible biodiversity strategies. We show that the largest overall source of impacts is imported feed; interestingly, nutrient loads contribute little to the footprint, despite representing an important political issue nationally. This highlights a general risk in using single indices to track net biodiversity outcomes: that they could result in an exclusionary focus, and perverse outcomes. Consequently, we develop safeguards to accompany the index; showing the necessity of incorporating safeguards, but also that meeting them could reduce sectoral biodiversity impacts by ~94%. Our proposed strategies vary in feasibility, all requiring trade-offs between biodiversity, land availability, and production.