Jiang Huan, Sun Ning, Yang Huiqi, Li Ye, Jiang Lihong, Zhao Huicui, Zeng Yi, Sun Chengyang, Xu Chun, Lai Yongqiang, Meng Jia
General Medical Department, Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.
Ningbo College of Health Sciences, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 1;13:1598507. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598507. eCollection 2025.
Falls are a global public health issue with a heavy disease and socioeconomic burden, with an increasing number of risky people. The aim of this study is to explore the global disease burden of falls and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and management of falls.
This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) to analyse global, regional, and national temporal trends in falls. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyse data from 1990 to 2021, with global predictions made through 2046.
Although the falls mortality of all age groups has shown a slight decline globally over the past three decades (Net drift = 0.84%, 95% CI: -0.92, -0.76), the mortality varying across regional and intra-regional levels by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, gender and older adults have not substantially decreased (local drift above 75 years: >0). The APC model reveals that falls mortality has increased with age, especially after the age of 55 years. The period effects shows an overall downward trend (Rate Ratio: 1.08-0.87). The cohort effect shows a trend of increasing first (RR: 1.02-1.18) and then decreasing (RR: 1.18-0.40). The marked heterogeneity in falls mortality is across higher-SDI regions. Population aging is identified as the primary contributor to changes in global falls mortality rates.
Falls among older adults remain a persistent global issue, with significant regional and intra-regional disparities in falls mortality. These findings underscore the urgent need for age- and region-specific interventions to address this public health challenge.
跌倒作为一个全球性的公共卫生问题，带来了沉重的疾病负担和社会经济负担，且高危人群数量不断增加。本研究旨在探讨全球跌倒疾病负担，为跌倒的预防和管理提供科学依据。
本研究使用了《2021年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2021）的数据，分析全球、区域和国家层面跌倒的时间趋势。应用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析1990年至2021年的数据，并对2046年前的全球情况进行预测。
尽管在过去三十年中，全球所有年龄组的跌倒死亡率均略有下降（净漂移率 = 0.84%，95%置信区间：-0.92，-0.76），但按社会人口学指数（SDI）五分位数、性别划分的区域和区域内水平的死亡率存在差异，老年人的死亡率并未大幅下降（75岁以上局部漂移率：>0）。APC模型显示，跌倒死亡率随年龄增长而增加，尤其是55岁以后。时期效应呈总体下降趋势（率比：1.08 - 0.87）。队列效应呈先上升（RR：1.02 - 1.18）后下降（RR：1.18 - 0.40）的趋势。跌倒死亡率的显著异质性存在于高SDI地区。人口老龄化被确定为全球跌倒死亡率变化的主要因素。
老年人跌倒仍然是一个持续存在的全球性问题，跌倒死亡率在区域和区域内存在显著差异。这些发现强调迫切需要针对不同年龄和地区采取干预措施，以应对这一公共卫生挑战。
