Yang Lu, Wang Zhenyu, Cui Ligang
Peking University Third Hospital, Haidian, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 13;13:1629891. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1629891. eCollection 2025.
Gout, a metabolic disorder driven by urate crystal deposition, has been understudied in adolescents, particularly in East Asia and China, where rising incidence aligns with rapid dietary and economic shifts. This study assessed the global, East Asian, and Chinese burden of adolescent gout from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2050.
Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among adolescents aged 10-19 years. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models projected future trends, while smoothing splines explored associations between sociodemographic index (SDI) and DALYs. Risk factor contributions were quantified by gender and region.
From 1990 to 2021, global ASRs of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rose annually by 0.26%, reaching 109.1, 653.8, and 20.2 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. East Asia exhibited steeper increases (0.36-0.37% annually), with Taiwan (Province of China) reporting the highest ASRs (prevalence: 1,054.1; DALYs: 33.2 per 100,000). China saw 17.1-25.1% ASR increases, driven by metabolic risks (36.8%), obesity (31.4%), and kidney dysfunction (7.6%). Females consistently bore higher burdens than males across regions. An M-shaped SDI-DALYs relationship peaked at mid-high development levels (SDI ≈ 0.75). Projections indicated stable global trends but rising incidence and prevalence in East Asia and China by 2050.
The escalating adolescent gout burden in East Asia and China reflects synergistic effects of obesity, metabolic syndrome, and lifestyle changes. Gender disparities highlight underrecognized risks in females. Sociodemographic transitions initially exacerbate then mitigate gout burden, emphasizing the need for early interventions targeting modifiable risks. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure and gender-specific prevention strategies are critical to curb projected increases in high-risk regions.
痛风是一种由尿酸盐晶体沉积驱动的代谢紊乱疾病，在青少年中研究较少，尤其是在东亚和中国，发病率上升与快速的饮食和经济变化同步。本研究评估了1990年至2021年全球、东亚和中国青少年痛风的负担，并预测了到2050年的趋势。
利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021数据，我们分析了10至19岁青少年的发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。计算了年龄标准化率（ASRs）和估计年百分比变化（EAPC）。自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来趋势，而平滑样条探索社会人口指数（SDI）与DALYs之间的关联。按性别和地区对风险因素贡献进行了量化。
1990年至2021年，全球发病率、患病率和DALYs的ASRs每年分别上升0.26%，2021年分别达到每10万人109.1、653.8和20.2。东亚地区增长更为显著（每年增长0.36%-0.37%），中国台湾地区报告的ASRs最高（患病率：每10万人1054.1；DALYs：33.2）。中国的ASRs增长了17.1%-25.1%，主要由代谢风险（36.8%）、肥胖（31.4%）和肾功能不全（7.6%）驱动。在各地区，女性的负担始终高于男性。SDI与DALYs呈M形关系，在中高发展水平（SDI≈0.75）达到峰值。预测表明全球趋势稳定，但到2050年东亚和中国的发病率和患病率将上升。
东亚和中国青少年痛风负担的不断升级反映了肥胖、代谢综合征和生活方式变化的协同作用。性别差异凸显了女性中未得到充分认识的风险。社会人口转变最初会加剧痛风负担，然后减轻痛风负担，这强调了针对可改变风险进行早期干预的必要性。加强医疗基础设施和针对性别的预防策略对于遏制高风险地区预计的增长至关重要。
