Burden and Future Trends of Gastric Cancer in 5 East Asian Countries From 1990 to 2036: Epidemiological Study Analysis Using the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021.

BACKGROUND

Effective prevention and treatment are urgently needed, since gastric cancer (GC) poses a grave threat to the health and well-being of patients. The 5 East Asian countries (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia) represent one of the most significant regions globally in terms of GC burden.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to examine the patterns and trends of GC across 5 East Asian countries between 1990 and 2021.

METHODS

We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 regarding the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with GC in 5 East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021. We further assessed the burden of GC according to age and sex. We used decomposition analysis to examine the changes in the number of new cases, patients, and deaths related to GC. We also used Joinpoint (Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 5.1.0) and age-period-cohort analysis methods to interpret the epidemiological characteristics of GC. Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction models were used to forecast the GC burden by 2036.

RESULTS

Among the 5 East Asian countries, China recorded the highest incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs in both 1990 and 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized rates for prevalence, mortality, incidence, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs across the 5 East Asian countries showed an overall decline, though they remained higher than the global average. In all 5 East Asian countries, individuals aged 65 years and older consistently exhibited the highest rates for prevalence, incidence, mortality, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs. The prevalence rate in South Korea, the incidence rate in North Korea and Mongolia, and the mortality rate in China are influenced by aging, surpassing the global aging average.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of GC in the 5 East Asian countries has consistently ranked high over the past 3 decades, particularly among the older individuals. The burden of GC in the 5 East Asian countries is expected to present a major public health challenge, primarily driven by the large population size and the aging demographic.