Sambo Beatrice, Sperotto Anna, Aznarez Celina, Terzi Stefano, Pittore Massimiliano, Critto Andrea, Torresan Silvia
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy.
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, I-73100 Italy.
Clim Change. 2025;178(9):168. doi: 10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3. Epub 2025 Sep 11.
The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus framework highlights the interdependencies among water, energy, and food systems. Integrating Ecosystem Services (ESs) enhances this approach by incorporating ecological benefits for more holistic assessments. This study applies a spatially explicit ESs-based WEF nexus analysis in the Adige River Basin (Northern Italy), focusing on five ESs: water provisioning, crop yield, sediment retention, carbon storage, and landscape diversity, under two future scenarios (SSP1-RCP 2.6 and SSP5-RCP 8.5) from 2018 to 2050. Using Self-Organizing Maps, sub-basins were clustered into ESs bundles enabling the identification of tailored management strategies. Results reveal spatial heterogeneity and shifts in ESs bundles, with synergies often found in upstream, forested areas. Under high-emission scenarios, regulating services decline and provisioning services face trade-offs, especially with intensified agriculture. Key strategies suggested include maintaining environmental flows, reducing synthetic fertilizers, promoting reforestation, crop diversification, and expanding protected areas. These are structured into physical, economic, and climatic pathways aligned with EU restoration goals. Findings demonstrate the value of an ESs-bundles approach for optimizing synergies and managing trade-offs across the WEF nexus.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3.
水-能源-食物（WEF）关系框架突出了水、能源和食物系统之间的相互依存关系。整合生态系统服务（ESs）通过纳入生态效益以进行更全面的评估来增强这种方法。本研究在阿迪杰河流域（意大利北部）应用基于生态系统服务的空间明确的水-能源-食物关系分析，重点关注五种生态系统服务：供水、作物产量、泥沙滞留、碳储存和景观多样性，研究2018年至2050年的两种未来情景（SSP1-RCP 2.6和SSP5-RCP 8.5）。使用自组织映射，子流域被聚类为生态系统服务束，从而能够确定量身定制的管理策略。结果揭示了生态系统服务束的空间异质性和变化，协同效应通常在上游的森林地区发现。在高排放情景下，调节服务下降，供给服务面临权衡，特别是在农业集约化的情况下。建议的关键策略包括维持环境流量、减少合成肥料、促进重新造林、作物多样化和扩大保护区。这些策略被构建为与欧盟恢复目标一致的物理、经济和气候途径。研究结果证明了生态系统服务束方法对于优化水-能源-食物关系中的协同效应和管理权衡的价值。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3获取的补充材料。
