Omorogie Evans O, Owolabi Kolade M, Olabode Bola T, Yusuf Tunde T, Pindza Edson
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, PMB 704 Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria.
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, School of Science and Technology, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Ga-Rankuwa 0208, South Africa.
Glob Epidemiol. 2025 Apr 22;9:100200. doi: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100200. eCollection 2025 Jun.
The resurgence of Covid-19, accompanied by various variants of the virus, highlights the fact that Covid-19 is still present within the population. The study proposed a Covid-19 dynamical model for analyzing the effect of vaccination and the continuous use of non-medical interventions for addressing Covid-19 transmission dynamics. The Lyaponov function and Jacobian matrix techniques were used to analyze the stability of the model's equilibria. The model was transformed into a problem of optimal control with time-dependent variables, aimed at managing efforts to prevent the spread of Covid-19. Numerical assessments were deployed to assess the effect of vaccination and the continuous use of non-medical intervention strategies to mitigate the spread of Covid-19. The global sensitivity analysis of the model was used to detect the key parameters influencing the behavior of the model. In addition, numerical results showed a significant decrease in the basic reproduction rate when implementing and , either separately or together. The optimal control results suggested that the control measures should be consistently enforced without any relaxation. 2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30, 93C95, 49 N90, 34H05, 37 N25.
新冠疫情的卷土重来,伴随着该病毒的各种变体,凸显了新冠病毒仍在人群中存在这一事实。该研究提出了一个新冠疫情动态模型,用于分析疫苗接种的效果以及持续采用非医疗干预措施对新冠病毒传播动态的影响。利用李雅普诺夫函数和雅可比矩阵技术分析了模型平衡点的稳定性。该模型被转化为一个具有时间依赖变量的最优控制问题,旨在管理预防新冠病毒传播的工作。通过数值评估来评估疫苗接种的效果以及持续使用非医疗干预策略对减轻新冠病毒传播的作用。对该模型进行全局敏感性分析,以检测影响模型行为的关键参数。此外,数值结果表明,单独或同时实施[具体措施1]和[具体措施2]时,基本再生数显著下降。最优控制结果表明,控制措施应持续严格执行,不得有任何松懈。2010数学学科分类:92D30、93C95、49N90、34H05、37N25。