A critical review of the field application of a mathematical model of malaria eradication.

A malaria control field research trial in northern Nigeria was planned with the aid of a computer simulation based on Macdonald's mathematical model of malaria epidemiology. Antimalaria attack was based on a combination of mass drug administration (chloroquine and pyrimethamine) and DDT house spraying. The observed results were at great variance with the predictions of the model. The causes of these discrepancies included inadequate estimation of the model's basic variables, and overestimation, in planning the simulation, of the effects of the attack measures and of the degree of perfection attainable by their application. The discrepancies were to a great extent also due to deficiencies in the model. An analysis is made of those considered to be the most important. It is concluded that research efforts should be encouraged to increase our knowledge of the basic epidemiological factors, their variation and correlations, and to formulate more realistic and useful theoretical models.