Reeser H M, Heremans G F, van Gelderen H H
Eur J Pediatr. 1979 Sep;132(1):37-41. doi: 10.1007/BF00443202.
Assessment of the results of treatment of tall girls with estrogens by comparing actual mature height with predicted mature height is unreliable, unless the accuracy of prediction has been tested in untreated tall girls. We report such an investigation in 14 tall girls who were treated with estrogens and in 14 untreated tall girls. Of the three prediction methods, those of Bayley and Tanner were reliable in our hands, whereas the method of Roche was less adequate. The mean reduction of height by treatment was about 7 cm using Tanner's method of prediction, 10 cm when Bayley's method was used. The standard deviation of the difference between actual and predicted height as found in untreated girls makes it hazardous to assess the amount of height reduction in the individual treated case with any certainty.
通过比较实际成熟身高与预测成熟身高来评估雌激素治疗高个女孩的效果是不可靠的，除非在未接受治疗的高个女孩中测试过预测的准确性。我们报告了对14名接受雌激素治疗的高个女孩和14名未接受治疗的高个女孩进行的此类调查。在三种预测方法中，贝利和坦纳的方法在我们的研究中是可靠的，而罗氏的方法则不太适用。使用坦纳的预测方法，治疗后身高平均降低约7厘米，使用贝利的方法时降低10厘米。未接受治疗女孩的实际身高与预测身高之间差异的标准差表明，要确定评估个体治疗病例的身高降低量是有风险的。
