Kates R W, Kasperson J X
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1983 Nov;80(22):7027-38. doi: 10.1073/pnas.80.22.7027.
Hazards are threats to people and what they value and risks are measures of hazards. Comparative analyses of the risks and hazards of technology can be dated to Starr's 1969 paper [Starr, C. (1969) Science 165, 1232-1238] but are rooted in recent trends in the evolution of technology, the identification of hazard, the perception of risk, and the activities of society. These trends have spawned an interdisciplinary quasi profession with new terminology, methodology, and literature. A review of 54 English-language monographs and book-length collections, published between 1970 and 1983, identified seven recurring themes: (i) overviews of the field of risk assessment, (ii) efforts to estimate and quantify risk, (iii) discussions of risk acceptability, (iv) perception, (v) analyses of regulation, (vi) case studies of specific technological hazards, and (vii) agenda for research. Within this field, science occupies a unique niche, for many technological hazards transcend the realm of ordinary experience and require expert study. Scientists can make unique contributions to each area of hazard management but their primary contribution is the practice of basic science. Beyond that, science needs to further risk assessment by understanding the more subtle processes of hazard creation and by establishing conventions for estimating risk and for presenting and handling uncertainty. Scientists can enlighten the discussion of tolerable risk by setting risks into comparative contexts, by studying the process of evaluation, and by participating as knowledgeable individuals, but they cannot decide the issue. Science can inform the hazard management process by broadening the range of alternative control actions and modes of implementation and by devising methods to evaluate their effectiveness.
危害是对人员及其所珍视事物的威胁，而风险则是危害的度量。对技术风险和危害的比较分析可以追溯到斯塔尔1969年的论文[斯塔尔，C.（1969年）《科学》165卷，第1232 - 1238页]，但其根源在于技术演变、危害识别、风险认知以及社会活动等方面的近期趋势。这些趋势催生了一个具有新术语、方法和文献的跨学科准专业领域。对1970年至1983年间出版的54本英文专著和书籍篇幅的文集进行回顾，确定了七个反复出现的主题：（i）风险评估领域概述；（ii）估计和量化风险的努力；（iii）风险可接受性的讨论；（iv）认知；（v）监管分析；（vi）特定技术危害的案例研究；（vii）研究议程。在这个领域中，科学占据着独特的位置，因为许多技术危害超越了普通经验的范畴，需要专家研究。科学家可以在危害管理的每个领域做出独特贡献，但他们的主要贡献是基础科学实践。除此之外，科学需要通过理解危害产生的更微妙过程以及建立估计风险、呈现和处理不确定性的惯例来进一步推进风险评估。科学家可以通过将风险置于比较背景中、研究评估过程以及作为有见识的个体参与来启发关于可容忍风险的讨论，但他们无法决定这个问题。科学可以通过拓宽替代控制行动和实施模式的范围，并设计评估其有效性的方法，为危害管理过程提供信息。
