Cullen J R, Chitprarop U, Doberstyn E B, Sombatwattanangkul K
Bull World Health Organ. 1984;62(1):107-14.
Parasitological data for the years 1973-81 were examined to determine the years of "acceptable" or "normal" transmission of malaria, for every district of northern Thailand. The monthly mean number of cases and the mean plus 2 standard deviations (SD) were calculated for the selected years and plotted on log-linear graph paper. The resulting graphs were distributed to the Malaria Sector Offices. Sector Chiefs were then responsible for plotting the monthly observed number of cases of malaria as the data became available; if the observed incidence was more than 2 SD greater than the "normal" mean for that month, the Zone and Regional Malaria Offices were informed. Retrospective analysis of data from districts where malaria outbreaks had occurred indicated that the method provides an effective warning of impending epidemics. It is expected that the resulting earlier implementation of appropriate remedial control measures will lead to a reduction in malaria incidence in the region.
对1973年至1981年的寄生虫学数据进行了审查，以确定泰国北部每个地区疟疾“可接受”或“正常”传播的年份。计算所选年份的月平均病例数以及均值加2个标准差（SD），并绘制在对数线性坐标纸上。生成的图表分发给疟疾防治部门办公室。然后，部门负责人负责在有可用数据时绘制每月观察到的疟疾病例数；如果观察到的发病率比该月的“正常”均值高出2个标准差以上，就会通知地区和区域疟疾防治办公室。对发生疟疾疫情地区的数据进行回顾性分析表明，该方法能有效预警即将发生的疫情。预计由此更早实施适当的补救控制措施将降低该地区的疟疾发病率。
