Onori E, Grab B
Bull World Health Organ. 1980;58(1):91-8.
The entomological inoculation rate is presented as a comprehensive indicator of malaria transmission level, its relative changes reflecting the risk of potential epidemic development. This rate is a known function of several epidemiological direct factors and is particularly sensitive to the survival rate and the sporogonic cycle of the vector. Although not yet fully quantifiable, relationships exist between direct factors responsible for the transmission of infection and certain meteorological and environmental indirect factors like air temperature, relative humidity, or importation of malaria parasites.The establishment of a two-stage monitoring system is suggested: the first stage would involve setting up a warning system based on the surveillance of the relevant indirect factors; at the appropriate time, this would trigger the second stage monitoring of the epidemiological direct factors having a definite bearing on the development of malaria outbreaks. It is recognized that the gain in reliability of the proposed approach depends largely on the progress still to be achieved in the quantification of the complex system of relations connecting the main direct factors with single or combined indirect factors. It is also noted that the proposed monitoring system should, in due course, provide the decision-makers with the epidemiological information required for the selection and implementation of intervention measures designed to prevent epidemic resurgences.
昆虫接种率是疟疾传播水平的综合指标，其相对变化反映了潜在疫情发展的风险。该指标是多个流行病学直接因素的已知函数，对媒介的生存率和孢子生殖周期尤为敏感。尽管尚未完全量化，但负责感染传播的直接因素与某些气象和环境间接因素（如气温、相对湿度或疟原虫输入）之间存在关联。建议建立一个两阶段监测系统：第一阶段将基于对相关间接因素的监测建立预警系统；在适当的时候，这将触发对与疟疾疫情发展有明确关联的流行病学直接因素的第二阶段监测。人们认识到，所提议方法的可靠性提高在很大程度上取决于在量化将主要直接因素与单个或组合间接因素联系起来的复杂关系系统方面仍需取得的进展。还指出，所提议的监测系统应在适当时候为决策者提供选择和实施旨在防止疫情复发的干预措施所需的流行病学信息。
