Gjertson D W, Morris J W
UCLA Tissue Typing Laboratory 90024, USA.
Genetica. 1995;96(1-2):89-98. doi: 10.1007/BF01441154.
The genetic resolution of paternity disputes begins with an intricate detection of inherited traits and finishes with a statistical inference (the probability of paternity, W). Notwithstanding some initial fanfare, statistical inference is a necessary component of DNA-based paternity tests because band patterns may be rare but not yet unique, and even rare events in a vacuum are meaningless. The genetic match must be combined with other evidence for relevancy, thus a Bayesian approach is preferred when computing W. This paper reviews the standard model used to compute W and discusses the model's various properties and assumptions. The standard model is extended to include DNA systems in which alleles are operationally continuous due to measurement error. This extension avoids problems associated with 'matched/non-matched' binned decisions. After outlining the model assumptions for a single DNA system, particular attention is given to the product rule-the procedure of multiplying intermediate probabilities across genetic loci to form a combined W. An empirical alternative to the product rule is also assessed and correlated with standard procedures.
亲子鉴定纠纷的遗传学解决始于对遗传特征的复杂检测，终于统计推断（父权概率，W）。尽管一开始有一些轰动，但统计推断是基于DNA的亲子鉴定的必要组成部分，因为条带模式可能罕见但并非独一无二，而且即使是真空中的罕见事件也毫无意义。遗传匹配必须与其他相关证据相结合，因此在计算W时首选贝叶斯方法。本文回顾了用于计算W的标准模型，并讨论了该模型的各种属性和假设。标准模型被扩展到包括由于测量误差导致等位基因在操作上连续的DNA系统。这种扩展避免了与“匹配/不匹配”分类决策相关的问题。在概述了单个DNA系统的模型假设之后，特别关注了乘积法则——在多个基因座上乘以中间概率以形成综合W的过程。还评估了乘积法则的一种经验替代方法，并将其与标准程序进行了关联。
