Incidence and predictors of diabetes in Japanese-American men. The Honolulu Heart Program.

Reports on the incidence and predictors of diabetes in minority populations are infrequent. The 6-year cumulative incidence of diabetes between 1965 and 1974 was estimated among 7210 Japanese-American men aged 45 to 68 years who were enrolled in the Honolulu Heart Program and were free of clinically recognized diabetes at baseline. The incidence of "possible" diabetes (based on history, medication, or hospital diagnosis) was 12.8% and the incidence of "probable" diabetes (based on diabetic medication) was 5.7%. Estimates of incidence in subjects with a nonfasting glucose concentration less than 225 mg/dL 1 hour after a 50-g load were 9.7 and 4.0%, respectively. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for probable diabetes in all subjects comparing the upper quintile with the lower four quintiles combined for continuous variables indicated statistically significant direct associations with body mass index (OR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.31 to 2.18), 1-hour postchallenge glucose level (OR, 5.79; 95% CI, 4.58 to 7.33), triglyceride levels (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.91), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.76), and parental history of diabetes (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.33), and an inverse association with physical activity (OR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.72), using logistic regression models including these variables as well as age, subscapular/triceps skinfold ratio, and hematocrit simultaneously. Associations were similar but slightly weaker in men with glucose levels less than 225 mg/dL and in those who remained free of cardiovascular disease. When older men (55 to 68 years old) were compared with younger (45 to 54 years old) men, associations among the older group were stronger for body mass index, physical activity, and systolic blood pressure and they were weaker for glucose levels, triglyceride values, and parental diabetes. Results suggest that body mass index, physical inactivity, glucose level, and parental diabetes appear to be independent risk factors for diabetes, while triglyceride and systolic blood pressure levels may be markers for an adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile associated with diabetes and may reflect an insulin resistance syndrome.