Estève J, Parker L, Roy P, Herrmann F, Duffy S, Frappaz D, Lasset C, Hill C, Sancho-Garnier H, Michaelis J
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Br J Cancer. 1995 Jun;71(6):1125-31. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1995.219.
Despite the five million children who have been screened for neuroblastoma in Japan through detection of catecholamine metabolites, it is still uncertain whether screening for this disease is beneficial. The Japanese study has clearly indicated that screening at 6 months or earlier leads to heavy overdiagnosis. It is shown in this paper that screening at a later age may give the same reduction in mortality with possibly less overdiagnosis. However, it is estimated that, even with two screens at 12 and 18 months, the reduction in mortality would not greatly exceed 25%, under realistic hypotheses on the length of the preclinical phase of the disease. The evaluation of the efficacy of this screening strategy would need the recruitment of half a million children per year over 5-7 years and the follow-up of an equal number of controls. Such a trial would improve our knowledge of the natural history of the disease and might help to answer some questions raised recently regarding its biological heterogeneity.
尽管日本通过检测儿茶酚胺代谢物对500万儿童进行了神经母细胞瘤筛查,但这种疾病的筛查是否有益仍不确定。日本的研究清楚地表明,6个月及更早进行筛查会导致严重的过度诊断。本文表明,在稍大年龄进行筛查可能会降低相同的死亡率,且过度诊断可能更少。然而,据估计,即使在12个月和18个月时进行两次筛查,在关于该疾病临床前期长度的现实假设下,死亡率的降低也不会大大超过25%。评估这种筛查策略的效果需要在5至7年内每年招募50万名儿童,并对同样数量的对照进行随访。这样的试验将增进我们对该疾病自然史的了解,并可能有助于回答最近提出的关于其生物学异质性的一些问题。