Saldiva P H, Pope C A, Schwartz J, Dockery D W, Lichtenfels A J, Salge J M, Barone I, Bohm G M
Laboratorio de Poluicao Atmosferica Experimental Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Arch Environ Health. 1995 Mar-Apr;50(2):159-63. doi: 10.1080/00039896.1995.9940893.
The relationship between daily mortality of elderly (65+ y) persons and air pollution in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil, for the period May 1990 to April 1991 was evaluated by time series regression, controlling for season, weather, and other factors. Mortality was associated with respirable particles (PM10), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). The association with PM10 was most statistically significant, robust, and independent of other air pollutants. An increase in PM10 equal to 100 micrograms/m3 was associated with an increase in overall mortality equal to approximately 13%. This association was consistent across various model specifications and estimation techniques. The dose-response relationship between mortality and respirable particulate pollution was almost linear, with no evidence of a "safe" threshold level. The results were similar to those observed in London and several U.S. cities. The results were also supportive of recent animal studies that have observed adverse health outcomes in experimental animals exposed to air pollution in Sao Paulo.
通过时间序列回归分析，对1990年5月至1991年4月期间巴西圣保罗大都市区老年人（65岁及以上）的每日死亡率与空气污染之间的关系进行了评估，并对季节、天气和其他因素进行了控制。死亡率与可吸入颗粒物（PM10）、氮氧化物（NOx）、二氧化硫（SO2）和一氧化碳（CO）有关。与PM10的关联在统计学上最为显著、稳健，且独立于其他空气污染物。PM10每增加100微克/立方米，总体死亡率就会增加约13%。这种关联在各种模型设定和估计技术中都是一致的。死亡率与可吸入颗粒物污染之间的剂量反应关系几乎是线性的，没有证据表明存在“安全”阈值水平。结果与在伦敦和美国几个城市观察到的结果相似。这些结果也支持了最近的动物研究，这些研究观察到在圣保罗接触空气污染的实验动物出现了不良健康后果。
