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无免疫力疾病模型中与种群大小相关的发病率

Population size dependent incidence in models for diseases without immunity.

作者信息

Zhou J, Hethcote H W

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa, Iowa City 52242.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 1994;32(8):809-34. doi: 10.1007/BF00168799.

Abstract

Epidemiological models of SIS type are analyzed to determine the thresholds, equilibria, and stability. The incidence term in these models has a contact rate which depends on the total population size. The demographic structures considered are recruitment-death, generalized logistic, decay and growth. The persistence of the disease combined with disease-related deaths and reduced reproduction of infectives can greatly affect the population dynamics. For example, it can cause the population size to decrease to zero or to a new size below its carrying capacity or it can decrease the exponential growth rate constant of the population.

摘要

对SIS型流行病学模型进行分析,以确定阈值、平衡点和稳定性。这些模型中的发病率项具有一个取决于总人口规模的接触率。所考虑的人口结构包括招募-死亡、广义逻辑斯蒂、衰减和增长。疾病的持续存在,加上与疾病相关的死亡和感染者繁殖率的降低,会极大地影响种群动态。例如,它可能导致种群规模降至零或降至其承载能力以下的新规模,或者它可能降低种群的指数增长率常数。

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