Douglas A J, Omar R Z, Smith P G
Department of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK.
Br J Cancer. 1994 Dec;70(6):1232-43. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1994.479.
The mortality of all 14,282 workers employed at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels between 1947 and 1975 was studied up to the end of 1988 and cancer incidence was examined from 1971 to 1986. This updates a previous report on mortality only up to the end of 1983. Ninety-nine per cent of the workers were traced satisfactorily. Cancer mortality was 4% less than that of England and Wales [standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 96; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 90,103] and the same as that of Cumbria (SMR = 100: Cl = 94,107). Cancer incidence was 10% less than that of England and Wales [standardised registration ratio (SRR) = 90; Cl = 83.97] and 18% less than that of Northern Region (SRR = 82; Cl = 75.88). Cancer mortality rates were significantly in excess of national rates for cancers of the pleura (nine observed, 2.6 expected; P = 0.001), thyroid (six observed, 1.8 expected; P = 0.01) and ill defined and secondary sites (53 observed, 39.2 expected; P = 0.02). There were significant deficits of cancers of the liver and gall bladder, larynx and lung. Among radiation workers there were significant positive correlations between accumulated radiation dose and mortality from cancers of ill-defined and secondary sites (10 year lag: P = 0.01) and for leukaemia (2 year lag: P = 0.009), but not for cancers of the pleura and thyroid cancer. Previous findings of such associations with multiple myeloma and bladder cancer were less strong. There was a significant excess of incident cases of cancer of the oesophagus (P = 0.01), but this was not associated with accumulated radiation dose. For cancers other than leukaemia, the dose-response risk estimates were below those of the adult atomic bomb survivors, but the 90% confidence interval included risks of zero and of 2-3 times higher. For leukaemia (12 deaths, excluding CLL), under an excess relative risk model, the risk estimate derived for the Sellafield workers was about four times higher than that for the adult atomic bomb survivors with a confidence interval ranging from a half to nearly 20 times that of the atomic bomb survivors. Overall, however, there was no excess of leukaemia among the workers compared with national rates.
对1947年至1975年期间受雇于英国核燃料公司塞拉菲尔德工厂的所有14282名工人的死亡率进行了研究,直至1988年底,并对1971年至1986年期间的癌症发病率进行了检查。这更新了一份仅截至1983年底的关于死亡率的先前报告。99%的工人被令人满意地追踪到。癌症死亡率比英格兰和威尔士低4%[标准化死亡率比(SMR)=96;95%置信区间(CI)=90,103],与坎布里亚郡相同(SMR=100;CI=94,107)。癌症发病率比英格兰和威尔士低10%[标准化登记率(SRR)=90;CI=83,97],比北部地区低18%(SRR=82;CI=75,88)。胸膜癌、甲状腺癌以及部位不明和继发性癌症的癌症死亡率显著高于全国水平(观察到9例,预期2.6例;P=0.001),甲状腺癌(观察到6例,预期1.8例;P=0.01),部位不明和继发性癌症(观察到53例,预期39.2例;P=0.02)。肝癌、胆囊癌、喉癌和肺癌的发病率明显低于全国水平。在辐射工人中,累积辐射剂量与部位不明和继发性癌症的死亡率(10年滞后:P=0.01)以及白血病死亡率(2年滞后:P=0.009)之间存在显著正相关,但与胸膜癌和甲状腺癌无关。先前关于与多发性骨髓瘤和膀胱癌的此类关联的发现不太显著。食管癌的发病病例显著过多(P=0.01),但这与累积辐射剂量无关。对于白血病以外的癌症,剂量反应风险估计低于成年原子弹幸存者,但90%置信区间包括零风险和高2至3倍的风险。对于白血病(12例死亡,不包括慢性淋巴细胞白血病),在超额相对风险模型下,为塞拉菲尔德工人得出的风险估计比成年原子弹幸存者高出约四倍,置信区间范围是原子弹幸存者的一半至近20倍。然而,总体而言,与全国发病率相比,工人中的白血病没有过多情况。