Stratospheric ozone depletion between 1979 and 1992: implications for biologically active ultraviolet-B radiation and non-melanoma skin cancer incidence.

The depletion of stratospheric ozone (O3) has predictable implications for increases in biologically damaging solar ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB, 280-320 nm) reaching the earth's surface. A radiative transfer analysis of satellite-based O3 measurements between January 1979 and December 1992 shows that surface UVB levels increased substantially at all latitudes except the tropics, if other factors such as cloud cover and local pollutant levels have remained constant over this period. Exposure to UVB radiation is known to induce basal cell and squamous cell skin cancers, and dose-response relationships derived from epidemiological data can be combined with the UVB enhancements to estimate the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of future expected increases in the incidence of these cancers.