Burrows R, Hofer H, East M L
Department of Continuing and Adult Education, University of Exeter, Cotley, Streatham Rise, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 1995 Nov 22;262(1364):235-45. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1995.0201.
The demography of Serengeti wild dog study packs and their extinction in 1991 was documented by Burrows et al. (1994). One explanation for pack loss compatible with demographic evidence was viral disease induced by stress caused by intervention (vaccination, immobilization and radio-collaring). Several studies claim to reject this hypothesis. However, cortisol levels measured in immobilized Lycaon, whose pathogen exposure is unknown, do not demonstrate that interventions in the Serengeti were benign. The analysis of survivorship in Lycaon in other ecosystems minimized the chance of demonstrating any effect of intervention and failed to consider vaccinations as intervention. There is now evidence that intervention significantly decreased survivorship of Masai Mara Lycaon. Further simulations of the likelihood of population extinction in Serengeti Lycaon, evidence of limited population variability and a small scaling factor in Serengeti Lycaon strengthen Burrows et al.'s conclusion that the extinction was unlikely to be due to chance alone. Although some studies claim that Lycaon conservation is doomed without intervention, to date vaccinations, blood sampling and radio-telemetry have contributed little to Lycaon conservation. All studies fail to disprove the Burrows hypothesis or provide convincing alternatives.
伯罗斯等人（1994年）记录了塞伦盖蒂野犬研究群体的种群统计学特征及其在1991年的灭绝情况。与种群统计学证据相符的群体数量减少的一种解释是，干预（疫苗接种、麻醉和无线电追踪）造成的压力引发了病毒性疾病。一些研究声称否定了这一假说。然而，在病原体暴露情况未知的麻醉状态下的非洲野犬身上测量的皮质醇水平，并未表明塞伦盖蒂的干预是无害的。对其他生态系统中非洲野犬生存情况的分析，将证明干预产生任何影响的可能性降至最低，并且没有将疫苗接种视为一种干预。现在有证据表明，干预显著降低了马赛马拉非洲野犬的存活率。对塞伦盖蒂非洲野犬种群灭绝可能性的进一步模拟、种群变异性有限的证据以及塞伦盖蒂非洲野犬的一个小比例因子，都强化了伯罗斯等人的结论，即灭绝不太可能仅仅是由于偶然因素。尽管一些研究声称，如果不进行干预，非洲野犬的保护就注定会失败，但迄今为止，疫苗接种、血液采样和无线电遥测对非洲野犬保护的贡献甚微。所有研究都未能反驳伯罗斯的假说，也未能提供令人信服的替代方案。
