Karhausen L R
Scand J Soc Med. 1996 Mar;24(1):8-13. doi: 10.1177/140349489602400103.
The paper attempts to model causality with logical conditionals by way of conditional probability. This provides a broad conceptualisation of causality according to which we merely observe tendencies toward sufficiency or tendencies toward necessity. Cohort studies evaluate the first tendencies, and case-control studies the latter. This conceptual approach also clarifies the logic of what unifies the two methods. Ways to measure causal tendencies are proposed. Some of the consequences of this conceptual analysis are discussed and among them, the growing role of chance instead of determinism in science and, although rarely acknowledged yet, in epidemiology.
本文试图通过条件概率，用逻辑条件句对因果关系进行建模。这提供了一种宽泛的因果关系概念，据此我们仅仅观察到充分性倾向或必要性倾向。队列研究评估前者，病例对照研究评估后者。这种概念方法还阐明了统一这两种方法的逻辑。文中提出了测量因果倾向的方法。讨论了这种概念分析的一些结果，其中包括偶然性而非决定论在科学中日益重要的作用，以及在流行病学中尽管尚未得到充分认识但同样日益重要的作用。
