Weiss W
Medical College of Pennsylvania-Hahnemann University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, USA.
Chest. 1997 May;111(5):1414-6. doi: 10.1378/chest.111.5.1414.
To update the epidemic curves for lung cancer in the United States by gender in relation to the temporal trends in adult current cigarette smoking prevalence.
The design of the study was ecologic, based on population figures. Available data on the prevalence of current cigarette smoking from 1920 to 1990 were plotted in conjunction with age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates from 1930 to 1992 for each sex.
There was a strong temporal relationship between the curves for cigarette smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate with approximately a 30-year population latency period in both men and women. The curves occurred later in women than in men. The lung cancer rate in men peaked in 1990 and then began to decline while the rate in women continued to rise.
The temporal association between cigarette smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality provides additional support for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer.
根据美国成年人当前吸烟流行率的时间趋势，更新美国按性别划分的肺癌流行曲线。
该研究采用基于人口数据的生态学设计。将1920年至1990年期间当前吸烟流行率的现有数据与1930年至1992年期间按性别调整年龄后的肺癌死亡率数据绘制在一起。
吸烟流行率曲线与肺癌死亡率曲线之间存在很强的时间关系，男性和女性的人群潜伏期均约为30年。女性的曲线出现时间比男性晚。男性肺癌发病率在1990年达到峰值，随后开始下降，而女性的发病率则持续上升。
吸烟流行率与肺癌死亡率之间的时间关联为吸烟与肺癌之间的因果关系提供了额外支持。
