McDonnell W F, Stewart P W, Andreoni S, Seal E, Kehrl H R, Horstman D H, Folinsbee L J, Smith M V
Clinical Research Branch, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 1997 Sep;156(3 Pt 1):715-22. doi: 10.1164/ajrccm.156.3.9611044.
The purpose of this analysis of previously published data was to identify a model that accurately predicts the mean ozone-induced FEV1 response of humans as a function of concentration (C), minute ventilation (VE), duration of exposure (T), and age. Healthy young adults (n = 485) were exposed for 2 h to one of six ozone concentrations while exercising at one of three levels. Candidate models were fitted to portions of the data and evaluated on the basis of their ability to predict the mean response of independent samples. A sigmoid-shaped model that is consistent with previous observations of ozone exposure-response (E-R) characteristics was identified and found to accurately predict the mean response with independent data. This model in a more general form may allow the prediction of responses under conditions of changing C and VE. We did not find that response was more sensitive to changes in C than in VE, nor did we find convincing evidence of an effect of body size upon response. We did find that response to ozone decreases with age. In summary, we have identified a biologically plausible, predictive model that quantifies the relationship between the ozone-induced change in FEV1, and C, VE, T, and age.
本次对先前已发表数据的分析目的在于确定一个模型，该模型能够根据浓度（C）、分钟通气量（VE）、暴露时长（T）和年龄，准确预测人类臭氧诱发的第一秒用力呼气容积（FEV1）平均反应。485名健康年轻成年人在三种运动水平之一的状态下，暴露于六种臭氧浓度之一的环境中2小时。候选模型被拟合到部分数据上，并根据其预测独立样本平均反应的能力进行评估。我们确定了一个与先前臭氧暴露-反应（E-R）特征观察结果一致的S形模型，发现该模型能够用独立数据准确预测平均反应。这种更通用形式的模型或许能够预测C和VE变化条件下的反应。我们并未发现反应对C变化的敏感度高于对VE变化的敏感度，也未找到令人信服的证据证明体型对反应有影响。我们确实发现对臭氧的反应会随着年龄增长而降低。总之，我们已经确定了一个具有生物学合理性的预测模型，该模型量化了臭氧诱发的FEV1变化与C、VE、T和年龄之间的关系。
