Ackers M L, Quick R E, Drasbek C J, Hutwagner L, Tauxe R V
Foodborne and Diarrheal Diseases Branch, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Int J Epidemiol. 1998 Apr;27(2):330-4. doi: 10.1093/ije/27.2.330.
From 1991 through 1995, all Latin American countries maintained cholera surveillance systems to track the epidemic that entered the region through Peru in January 1991. These data were used to assess correlations between socioeconomic and demographic indices that might serve as national risk predictors for epidemic cholera in Latin America.
Correlations between country-specific cumulative cholera incidence rates from 1991 through 1995 and infant mortality, the Human Development Index [HDI] a numerical value based on life expectancy, education, and income), gross national product (GNP) per capita, and female literacy were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient.
A total of 1,339,834 cholera cases with a cumulative incidence rate of 183 per 100,000 population were reported from affected Western Hemisphere countries from 1991 through 1995. Infant mortality rates were the most strongly correlated with cumulative cholera incidence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. The HDI had a less strong negative correlation with cumulative cholera incidence. The GNP per capita and female literacy rates were weakly and negatively correlated with cholera cumulative incidence rates.
Infant mortality and possibly the HDI may be useful indirect indices of the risk of sustained transmission of cholera within a Latin American country. Cumulative cholera incidence is decreased particularly in countries with infant mortality below 40 per 1000 live births. The lack of reported cholera cases in Uruguay and the Caribbean may reflect a low risk for ongoing transmission, consistent with socioeconomic and demographic indices. Cholera surveillance remains an important instrument for determining cholera trends within individual countries and regions.
1991年至1995年期间，所有拉丁美洲国家都维持了霍乱监测系统，以追踪1991年1月通过秘鲁进入该地区的疫情。这些数据用于评估社会经济和人口指数之间的相关性，这些指数可能作为拉丁美洲霍乱流行的国家风险预测指标。
使用Pearson相关系数检验1991年至1995年各国特定的霍乱累积发病率与婴儿死亡率、人类发展指数（基于预期寿命、教育和收入的数值）、人均国民生产总值（GNP）以及女性识字率之间的相关性。
1991年至1995年期间，受影响的西半球国家共报告了1339834例霍乱病例，累积发病率为每10万人183例。根据Pearson相关系数，婴儿死亡率与霍乱累积发病率的相关性最强。人类发展指数与霍乱累积发病率的负相关性较弱。人均国民生产总值和女性识字率与霍乱累积发病率呈弱负相关。
婴儿死亡率以及可能的人类发展指数可能是拉丁美洲国家内霍乱持续传播风险的有用间接指标。特别是在婴儿死亡率低于每1000例活产40例的国家，霍乱累积发病率有所下降。乌拉圭和加勒比地区报告的霍乱病例较少，这可能反映了持续传播的低风险，这与社会经济和人口指数一致。霍乱监测仍然是确定各个国家和地区霍乱趋势的重要手段。
