Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 Jun;141(6):1276-85. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812001793. Epub 2012 Aug 31.
The emergence of epidemic cholera in post-earthquake Haiti portended a public health disaster of uncertain magnitude. In order to coordinate relief efforts in an environment with limited healthcare infrastructure and stretched resources, timely and realistic projections of the extent of the cholera outbreak were crucial. Projections were shared with Government and partner organizations beginning 5 days after the first reported case and were updated using progressively more advanced methods as more surveillance data became available. The first projection estimated that 105 000 cholera cases would occur in the first year. Subsequent projections using different methods estimated up to 652 000 cases and 163 000-247 000 hospitalizations during the first year. Current surveillance data show these projections to have provided reasonable approximations of the observed epidemic. Providing the real-time projections allowed Haitian ministries and external aid organizations to better plan and implement response measures during the evolving epidemic.
海地地震后出现的霍乱疫情预示着一场公共卫生灾难，其规模尚不确定。为了在医疗基础设施有限、资源紧张的环境中协调救援工作，及时、现实地预测霍乱疫情的范围至关重要。在首例报告病例发生后 5 天，我们就向政府和合作伙伴组织提供了预测结果，并随着更多监测数据的出现，使用更先进的方法不断更新预测结果。最初的预测估计，在第一年将发生 105000 例霍乱病例。随后使用不同方法的预测估计，在第一年将发生多达 652000 例病例和 163000-247000 例住院治疗。目前的监测数据显示，这些预测结果合理地近似于观察到的疫情。实时提供预测结果使海地各部委和外部援助组织能够在不断演变的疫情期间更好地规划和实施应对措施。
