McCarty C W, Miller M W
Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523, USA.
J Wildl Dis. 1998 Oct;34(4):722-30. doi: 10.7589/0090-3558-34.4.722.
A model was derived for disease transmission in dynamic host populations and its application was demonstrated in forecasting possible outcomes of a bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) epidemic in a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. The approach was mechanistic, based disease transmission on the probability of each susceptible individual becoming infected per unit time, and afforded the flexibility necessary to model epidemics in dynamic wildlife populations. This approach was applied to a sex- and age-structured deer population model. This model predicted that tuberculosis prevalence in a white-tailed deer population could rise from approximately 3% to about 21% over 25 yr, and that neither lowered deer survival nor lowered transmission would be completely effective in eliminating disease from the population. Maternal transmission appeared unimportant to modeled tuberculosis dynamics; in contrast, disease was not maintained for > 15 yr in models lacking lateral transmission.
我们推导了一个用于动态宿主种群中疾病传播的模型，并展示了其在预测白尾鹿（弗吉尼亚鹿）种群中牛结核病（牛分枝杆菌）疫情可能结果方面的应用。该方法是基于机制的，将疾病传播基于每个易感个体在单位时间内被感染的概率，并且为动态野生动物种群中的疫情建模提供了必要的灵活性。这种方法被应用于一个按性别和年龄结构划分的鹿种群模型。该模型预测，在25年的时间里，白尾鹿种群中的结核病患病率可能从大约3%上升到约21%，而且降低鹿的存活率或降低传播率都不能完全有效地从种群中消除疾病。母体传播对建模的结核病动态似乎并不重要；相比之下，在缺乏横向传播的模型中，疾病无法持续超过15年。
