Stenseth N C, Falck W, Chan K S, Bjørnstad O N, O'Donoghue M, Tong H, Boonstra R, Boutin S, Krebs C J, Yoccoz N G
Centre for Advanced Study, The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Drammensveien 78, N-0271 Oslo, Norway.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1998 Dec 22;95(26):15430-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.95.26.15430.
Across the boreal forest of North America, lynx populations undergo 10-year cycles. Analysis of 21 time series from 1821 to the present demonstrates that these fluctuations are generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays. Trophic interactions between lynx and hares cause delayed density-dependent regulation of lynx population growth. The nonlinearity, in contrast, appears to arise from phase dependencies in hunting success by lynx through the cycle. Using a combined approach of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling, we highlight how shifts in trophic interactions between the lynx and the hare generate the nonlinear process primarily by shifting functional response curves during the increase and the decrease phases.
在北美广袤的北方森林中，猞猁种群数量呈现出10年的周期性变化。对1821年至今的21个时间序列进行分析表明，这些波动是由具有调节延迟的非线性过程产生的。猞猁与野兔之间的营养相互作用导致了猞猁种群增长的延迟密度依赖性调节。相比之下，这种非线性似乎源于猞猁在整个周期内狩猎成功率的相位依赖性。通过结合实证、统计和数学建模的方法，我们着重指出了猞猁与野兔之间营养相互作用的变化如何主要通过在增长和下降阶段改变功能反应曲线来产生非线性过程。
