Survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients by clinical symptoms: development of a simple indicator.

BACKGROUND

Although accurate prediction of survival is essential for palliative care, no clinical tools have been established.

METHODS

Performance status and clinical symptoms were prospectively assessed on two independent series of terminally ill cancer patients (training set, n = 150; testing set, n = 95). On the training set, the cases were divided into two groups with or without a risk factor for shorter than 3 and 6 weeks survival, according to the way the classification achieved acceptable predictive value. The validity of this classification for survival prediction was examined on the test samples.

RESULTS

The cases with performance status 10 or 20, dyspnea at rest or delirium were classified in the group with a predicted survival of shorter than 3 weeks. The cases with performance status 10 or 20, edema, dyspnea at rest or delirium were classified in the group with a predicted survival of shorter than 6 weeks. On the training set, this classification predicted 3 and 6 weeks survival with sensitivity 75 and 76% and specificity 84 and 78%, respectively. On the test populations, whether patients survived for 3 and 6 weeks or not was predicted with sensitivity 85 and 79% and specificity 84 and 72%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Whether or not patients live for 3 and 6 weeks can be acceptably predicted by this simple classification.