1956年至1996年期间塞尔维亚中部的结核病发病趋势

Tuberculosis trends in Central Serbia in the period 1956-1996.

作者信息

Gledovic Z, Jovanovic M, Pekmezovic T

机构信息

Institute of Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Yugoslavia.

出版信息

Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2000 Jan;4(1):32-5.

PMID:10654641

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To estimate tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in Central Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Vojvodina provinces) in the period 1956-1996.

DESIGN

The incidence and mortality data of tuberculosis in Central Serbia in the period 1956-1996 were analysed based on the annual reports of the Institute for Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and the official data of the Republic Health Institute.

RESULTS

During the period under observation, tuberculosis incidence decreased from 324.0 to 34.8/100 000 population, fitting the exponential model (y = 389.066e-(0.0689); F = 847.60; P = 0.000). Mortality rates decreased from 76.0 in 1956 to 0.9/100000 in 1982. Over the whole period (1956-1996) the decrease in mortality rates fitted the exponential model (y = 66.83e-(0.0922); F = 150.95; P = 0.000). The increase in mortality rates in the period 1982-1996 fitted cubic model (y = 7.647 - 2.674x + 0.359x(2)-0.013x(3); F = 12.17; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Decreasing trends in tuberculosis incidence are the result of good control programmes. Changes in mortality trends are related to migration from war zones and poor economic conditions which hinder the detection and treatment of tuberculosis.

摘要

目的

评估1956 - 1996年期间塞尔维亚中部（不包括科索沃和伏伊伏丁那省）的结核病发病率和死亡率趋势。

设计

根据贝尔格莱德肺病与结核病研究所的年度报告以及共和国卫生研究所的官方数据，分析1956 - 1996年期间塞尔维亚中部的结核病发病率和死亡率数据。

结果

在观察期内，结核病发病率从324.0/10万人口降至34.8/10万人口，符合指数模型（y = 389.066e^(-0.0689)；F = 847.60；P = 0.000）。死亡率从1956年的76.0降至1982年的0.9/10万。在整个时期（1956 - 1996年），死亡率的下降符合指数模型（y = 66.83e^(-0.0922)；F = 150.95；P = 0.000）。1982 - 1996年期间死亡率的上升符合三次模型（y = 7.647 - 2.674x + 0.359x² - 0.013x³；F = 12.17；P = 0.001）。