Scherb H, Weigelt E, Brüske-Hohlfeld I
GSF-Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit, Institut für Biomathematik und Biometrie,Oberschleissheim, Germany.
Environ Health Perspect. 2000 Feb;108(2):159-65. doi: 10.1289/ehp.00108159.
Numerous investigations have been carried out on the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident on the prevalence of anomalies at birth and on perinatal mortality. In many cases the studies were aimed at the detection of differences of pregnancy outcome measurements between regions or time periods. Most authors conclude that there is no evidence of a detrimental physical effect on congenital anomalies or other outcomes of pregnancy following the accident. In this paper, we report on statistical analyses of time trends of perinatal mortality in Germany. Our main intention is to investigate whether perinatal mortality, as reflected in official records, was increased in 1987 as a possible effect of the Chernobyl accident. We show that, in Germany as a whole, there was a significantly elevated perinatal mortality proportion in 1987 as compared to the trend function. The increase is 4.8% (p = 0.0046) of the expected perinatal death proportion for 1987. Even more pronounced levels of 8.2% (p = 0. 0458) and 8.5% (p = 0.0702) may be found in the higher contaminated areas of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), including West Berlin, and of Bavaria, respectively. To investigate the impact of statistical models on results, we applied three standard regression techniques. The observed significant increase in 1987 is independent of the statistical model used. Stillbirth proportions show essentially the same behavior as perinatal death proportions, but the results for all of Germany are nonsignificant due to the smaller numbers involved. Analysis of the association of stillbirth proportions with the (137)Cs deposition on a district level in Bavaria discloses a significant relationship. Our results are in contrast to those of many analyses of the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident and contradict the present radiobiologic knowledge. As we are dealing with highly aggregated data, other causes or artifacts may explain the observed effects. Hence, the findings should be interpreted with caution, and further independent evidence should be sought.
针对切尔诺贝利事故对出生时异常情况的发生率以及围产期死亡率可能产生的影响，人们已经开展了大量调查。在许多情况下，这些研究旨在检测不同地区或不同时间段内妊娠结局指标的差异。大多数作者得出结论，没有证据表明事故后先天性异常或其他妊娠结局受到了有害的身体影响。在本文中，我们报告了德国围产期死亡率时间趋势的统计分析情况。我们的主要目的是调查官方记录中反映的围产期死亡率在1987年是否因切尔诺贝利事故而有所上升。我们发现，在德国整体范围内，与趋势函数相比，1987年围产期死亡率比例显著升高。这一增长幅度为1987年预期围产期死亡比例的4.8%（p = 0.0046）。在前德意志民主共和国（东德）包括西柏林在内的高污染地区以及巴伐利亚州，甚至可以发现更为显著的增长水平，分别为8.2%（p = 0.0458）和8.5%（p = 0.0702）。为了研究统计模型对结果的影响，我们应用了三种标准回归技术。1987年观察到的显著增长与所使用的统计模型无关。死产比例的表现与围产期死亡比例基本相同，但由于涉及的数量较少，德国整体的结果不显著。对巴伐利亚州地区层面死产比例与铯 - 137沉降量之间关联的分析揭示了一种显著关系。我们的结果与许多关于切尔诺贝利事故健康后果的分析结果相反，也与当前的放射生物学知识相矛盾。由于我们处理的是高度汇总的数据，其他原因或人为因素可能解释所观察到的影响。因此，对这些发现的解释应谨慎，并且应寻求更多独立证据。
