Modelling death rates for carriers of hepatitis B.

Hepatitis B carriers who acquired the infection perinatally die from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis at high rates. Published cohort studies are largely limited to males and are too small to estimate the age-specific risk of death. We therefore used routinely collected Hong Kong data to estimate the risks. Deaths were partitioned between carriers and non-carriers, then current life table calculations determined life expectancy and probability of dying from HCC or cirrhosis. HCC is the dominant cause of death for male carriers in middle adulthood with a lifetime risk of 27% for HCC compared to 4% for females. Predicted life expectancy is 72 years for male carriers, compared to 79 years for non-carriers. Female carriers have a life expectancy of 81 years and non-carriers 83 years. This model probably applies to all southern Chinese populations and emigrants with similar life history, and other populations that acquired infection early in life.