Dickinson J A, Wun Y T, Wong S L
Department of Community and Family Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 4/F School of Public Health, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, NT.
Epidemiol Infect. 2002 Feb;128(1):83-92. doi: 10.1017/s0950268801006410.
Hepatitis B carriers who acquired the infection perinatally die from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis at high rates. Published cohort studies are largely limited to males and are too small to estimate the age-specific risk of death. We therefore used routinely collected Hong Kong data to estimate the risks. Deaths were partitioned between carriers and non-carriers, then current life table calculations determined life expectancy and probability of dying from HCC or cirrhosis. HCC is the dominant cause of death for male carriers in middle adulthood with a lifetime risk of 27% for HCC compared to 4% for females. Predicted life expectancy is 72 years for male carriers, compared to 79 years for non-carriers. Female carriers have a life expectancy of 81 years and non-carriers 83 years. This model probably applies to all southern Chinese populations and emigrants with similar life history, and other populations that acquired infection early in life.
围产期感染乙肝的携带者因肝细胞癌（HCC）和肝硬化而死亡的比例很高。已发表的队列研究大多限于男性，而且样本量太小，无法估计特定年龄的死亡风险。因此，我们使用香港常规收集的数据来估计风险。将死亡情况分为携带者和非携带者，然后通过当前的生命表计算来确定预期寿命以及死于HCC或肝硬化的概率。HCC是中年男性携带者的主要死因，HCC的终生风险为27%，而女性为4%。男性携带者的预测预期寿命为72岁，非携带者为79岁。女性携带者的预期寿命为81岁，非携带者为83岁。该模型可能适用于所有具有相似生活史的中国南方人群和移民，以及在生命早期感染的其他人群。
