Carter Richard
Division of Biological Sciences, ICAPB, University of Edinburgh, UK.
Int J Parasitol. 2002 Dec 4;32(13):1617-24. doi: 10.1016/s0020-7519(02)00190-x.
A simple, visual representation of spatial aspects of malaria transmission in successive snap-shots in time, is presented. The spatial components of the simulation involve (i) the identification of mosquito vector breeding sites of defined shape and area, (ii) the identification of a zone of malaria transmission determined by the shapes and areas of the vector breeding sites and the distance from these sites that the mosquitoes disperse, (iii) a human population dispersed in relation to the malaria transmission zone, (iv) perimeters around each individual human within which his or her infection can be transmitted by the local vector mosquitoes. The intensity of transmission within a malaria transmission zone is given by a number which is the number of new cases of malaria that each existing case will distribute through the human population within the duration of an infection. The simulation has been used here to examine the effects of vaccination against malaria transmission. Different levels of vaccine coverage are represented under endemic and epidemic malaria. The consequences of full or partial coverage of a zone of malaria transmission are also examined. The results are numerically compatible with the predictions of previous simple mathematical simulations of malaria transmission and interventions. The present simulation allows the nature of malaria transmission and the effects of interventions to be communicated easily and directly to an audience. It could have practical value in discussions of malaria control strategies with health planners.
本文展示了疟疾传播空间方面在连续时间快照中的一种简单可视化表示。模拟的空间组成部分包括：（i）确定具有特定形状和面积的蚊媒繁殖场所；（ii）根据蚊媒繁殖场所的形状、面积以及蚊子扩散的距离确定疟疾传播区域；（iii）相对于疟疾传播区域分布的人群；（iv）每个个体周围的范围，在该范围内其感染可通过当地的蚊媒传播给他人。疟疾传播区域内的传播强度由一个数字表示，该数字是每个现有病例在一次感染期间将在人群中传播的新疟疾病例数。在此使用该模拟来研究疟疾传播疫苗接种的效果。在地方性和流行性疟疾情况下表示了不同水平的疫苗接种覆盖率。还研究了疟疾传播区域完全或部分覆盖的后果。结果在数值上与先前疟疾传播及干预措施的简单数学模拟预测相符。本模拟能够将疟疾传播的性质和干预措施的效果轻松且直接地传达给受众。在与卫生规划者讨论疟疾控制策略时，它可能具有实际价值。
