Francesconi Paolo, Yoti Zabulon, Declich Silvia, Onek Paul Awil, Fabiani Massimo, Olango Joseph, Andraghetti Roberta, Rollin Pierre E, Opira Cyprian, Greco Donato, Salmaso Stefania
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Nov;9(11):1430-7. doi: 10.3201/eid0911.030339.
From August 2000 through January 2001, a large epidemic of Ebola hemorrhagic fever occurred in Uganda, with 425 cases and 224 deaths. Starting from three laboratory-confirmed cases, we traced the chains of transmission for three generations, until we reached the primary case-patients (i.e., persons with an unidentified source of infection). We then prospectively identified the other contacts in whom the disease had developed. To identify the risk factors associated with transmission, we interviewed both healthy and ill contacts (or their proxies)who had been reported by the case-patients (or their proxies) and who met the criteria set for contact tracing during surveillance. The patterns of exposure of 24 case-patients and 65 healthy contacts were defined, and crude and adjusted prevalence proportion ratios (PPR) were estimated for different types of exposure. Contact with the patient's body fluids (PPR = 4.61%, 95% confidence interval 1.73 to 12.29) was the strongest risk factor, although transmission through fomites also seems possible.
2000年8月至2001年1月,乌干达发生了大规模埃博拉出血热疫情,有425例病例,224人死亡。从3例实验室确诊病例开始,我们追踪了三代传播链,直至找到首例病例患者(即感染源不明的人)。然后我们前瞻性地确定了其他发病的接触者。为了确定与传播相关的危险因素,我们对病例患者(或其代理人)报告的、在监测期间符合接触者追踪标准的健康和患病接触者(或其代理人)进行了访谈。确定了24例病例患者和65名健康接触者的接触模式,并对不同类型接触的粗患病率比例和调整患病率比例(PPR)进行了估计。接触患者的体液(PPR = 4.61%,95%置信区间1.73至12.29)是最强的危险因素,不过通过被污染物品传播似乎也有可能。