Mattisson Cecilia, Bogren Mats, Nettelbladt Per, Munk-Jörgensen Povl, Bhugra Dinesh
Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Division of Psychiatry, the Lundby Study, Lund University Hospital, St Lars, SE-221 85 Lund, Sweden.
J Affect Disord. 2005 Aug;87(2-3):151-60. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2005.04.002.
The Lundby Study is a prospective, longitudinal study on a total population consisting of 3563 subjects during 50 years. This study compares first incidence rates of depression and cumulative probabilities for developing a depression over the two time periods 1947-1972 and 1972-1997.
The Lundby Study started in 1947. Follow-ups were carried out in 1957 and in 1972. In 1997 the surviving subjects (N=1797) were interviewed by psychiatrists with a semi-structured interview. Best-estimate consensus diagnoses were used and ICD-10 and DSM-IV diagnoses were added. Further, 1030 subjects who had died during the last follow-up period 1972-1997 were investigated.
Women had higher incidence rates than men in both periods. The average annual incidence rate was lower for women and tended to be lower for men 1972-1997 as compared with 1947-1972. The cumulative probability for developing a depression was 22.5% for men and 30.7% for women 1972-1997. In 1947-1972 the corresponding figures were 22.8% in men and 35.7% in women.
The recall period is of considerable length, probably introducing recall bias. The inter-rater reliability over 50 years is fairly acceptable concerning depression.
Lower annual standardised incidence rates were seen in 1972-1997 compared with 1947-1972. These findings suggest that the trend of increasing rates of depression in the Lundby cohort has terminated. Incidence rates and cumulative probabilities to develop a depression were higher for women than for men, indicating that gender differences continue to play a role.
伦德比研究是一项针对3563名受试者的总人口进行的为期50年的前瞻性纵向研究。该研究比较了1947年至1972年和1972年至1997年这两个时间段内抑郁症的首次发病率以及患抑郁症的累积概率。
伦德比研究始于1947年。1957年和1972年进行了随访。1997年，对幸存的受试者（N = 1797）由精神科医生进行半结构化访谈。采用最佳估计的共识诊断，并增加了国际疾病分类第10版（ICD - 10）和精神疾病诊断与统计手册第四版（DSM - IV）诊断。此外，对在1972年至1997年最后随访期间死亡的1030名受试者进行了调查。
在两个时间段内，女性的发病率均高于男性。1972年至1997年期间，女性的年平均发病率较低，男性的年平均发病率也趋于降低，与1947年至1972年相比。1972年至1997年期间，男性患抑郁症的累积概率为22.5%，女性为30.7%。1947年至1972年期间，男性和女性的相应数字分别为22.8%和35.7%。
回忆期相当长，可能会引入回忆偏倚。关于抑郁症，50年间评估者间的可靠性相当可接受。
与1947年至1972年相比，1972年至1997年的年标准化发病率较低。这些发现表明，伦德比队列中抑郁症发病率上升的趋势已经终止。女性患抑郁症的发病率和累积概率高于男性，表明性别差异继续发挥作用。
