Bond Tami C, Sun Haolin
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2005 Aug 15;39(16):5921-6. doi: 10.1021/es0480421.
Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.
近期的实地测量和模型结果表明,气溶胶可能对气候产生重要影响。一条研究思路探讨了减少气候变暖的煤烟或黑碳气溶胶排放是否能成为缓解全球变暖的可行组成部分。我们回顾并认可了反对在一个共同框架内考虑气溶胶和温室气体的科学观点,包括气候变化物理机制和相关时间尺度上的差异。我们认为这种联合考虑与《联合国气候变化框架公约》的表述是一致的。我们综合已发表的气候建模研究结果,得出相对于二氧化碳,黑碳在100年时间跨度上的全球变暖潜能值(为680)。这一计算结果有助于讨论减少最大黑碳排放源的成本效益。我们发现,与温室气体相比,许多减排措施要么成本高昂,要么难以实施,在附件一国家尤其如此。最后,我们提出了黑碳在气候缓解策略中的作用,这与我们讨论过程中提出的看似相互矛盾的观点相一致。对于尚未同意解决温室气体排放问题的国家而言,解决这些排放问题是减少气候干扰的一个有前景的途径,并为达成平行气候协议提供了可能性。