Wolf Douglas A, Hunt Kelly, Knickman James
Syracuse University, Center for Policy Research, NY 13244, USA.
Milbank Q. 2005;83(3):365-95. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00406.x.
A decline has been found in the prevalence of disability among the older U.S. population during the 1980s and 1990s. One source of evidence for this decline is data from the National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS). This article investigates possible ambiguities in measuring disability using large-scale household surveys, illustrating the consequences of such problems with new analyses of NLTCS data. The reanalysis suggests a more gradual decline in disability than that found in prior research. The article also discusses three societal trends in areas other than health or functioning that might contribute to declines in disability levels: a reduced supply of informal care, changes in the technology of self-care, and changes in the definition and perception of both "ability" and "disability."
在美国老年人口中,20世纪80年代和90年代残疾发生率呈下降趋势。这一下降趋势的证据来源之一是国家长期护理调查(NLTCS)的数据。本文研究了使用大规模家庭调查来衡量残疾时可能存在的模糊性,并通过对NLTCS数据的新分析来说明此类问题的后果。重新分析表明,残疾率的下降比先前研究发现的更为平缓。本文还讨论了健康或功能以外领域的三个社会趋势,这些趋势可能导致残疾水平下降:非正式护理供应减少、自我护理技术的变化,以及“能力”和“残疾”定义及认知的变化。