Analitis Antonis, Katsouyanni Klea, Dimakopoulou Konstantina, Samoli Evangelia, Nikoloulopoulos Aristidis K, Petasakis Yannis, Touloumi Giota, Schwartz Joel, Anderson Hugh Ross, Cambra Koldo, Forastiere Francesco, Zmirou Denis, Vonk Judith M, Clancy Luke, Kriz Bohumir, Bobvos Janos, Pekkanen Juha
Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Athens Medical School, Athens, Greece.
Epidemiology. 2006 Mar;17(2):230-3. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000199439.57655.6b.
Particulate air pollution is associated with increased mortality. There is a need for European results from multicountry databases concerning cause-specific mortality to obtain more accurate effect estimates.
We report the estimated effects of ambient particle concentrations (black smoke and particulate matter less than 10 mum [PM10]) on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, from 29 European cities, within the Air Pollution and Health: a European Approach (APHEA2) project. We applied a 2-stage hierarchical modeling approach assessing city-specific effects first and then overall effects. City characteristics were considered as potential effect modifiers.
An increase in PM10 by 10 microg/m (lag 0 + 1) was associated with increases of 0.76% (95% confidence interval = 0.47 to 1.05%) in cardiovascular deaths and 0.58% (0.21 to 0.95%) in respiratory deaths. The same increase in black smoke was associated with increases of 0.62% (0.35 to 0.90%) and 0.84% (0.11 to 1.57%), respectively.
These effect estimates are appropriate for health impact assessment and standard-setting procedures.
空气中的微粒污染与死亡率上升有关。需要利用多国数据库得出的关于特定病因死亡率的欧洲研究结果，以获得更准确的效应估计值。
我们在“空气污染与健康：欧洲方法（APHEA2）”项目中，报告了来自29个欧洲城市的环境颗粒物浓度（黑烟和小于10微米的颗粒物[PM10]）对心血管和呼吸系统死亡率的估计效应。我们采用了两阶段分层建模方法，首先评估特定城市的效应，然后评估总体效应。城市特征被视为潜在的效应修饰因素。
PM10每增加10微克/立方米（滞后0 + 1），心血管死亡人数增加0.76%（95%置信区间 = 0.47%至1.05%），呼吸死亡人数增加0.58%（0.21%至0.95%）。黑烟同样增加10微克/立方米，分别导致心血管死亡人数增加0.62%（0.35%至0.90%）和呼吸死亡人数增加0.84%（0.11%至1.57%）。
这些效应估计值适用于健康影响评估和标准制定程序。
