Kousa Anne, Havulinna Aki S, Moltchanova Elena, Taskinen Olli, Nikkarinen Maria, Eriksson Johan, Karvonen Marjatta
Geological Survey of Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
Environ Health Perspect. 2006 May;114(5):730-4. doi: 10.1289/ehp.8438.
Several epidemiologic studies have shown an association between calcium and magnesium and coronary heart disease mortality and morbidity. In this small-area study, we examined the relationship between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) risk and content of Ca, Mg, and chromium in local groundwater in Finnish rural areas using Bayesian modeling and geospatial data aggregated into 10 km times symbol 10 km grid cells. Data on 14,495 men 35-74 years of age with their first AMI in the years 1983, 1988, or 1993 were pooled. Geochemical data consisted of 4,300 measurements of each element in local groundwater. The median concentrations of Mg, Ca, and Cr and the Ca:Mg ratio in well water were 2.61 mg/L, 12.23 mg/L, 0.27 microg/L, and 5.39, respectively. Each 1 mg/L increment in Mg level decreased the AMI risk by 4.9%, whereas a one unit increment in the Ca:Mg ratio increased the risk by 3.1%. Ca and Cr did not show any statistically significant effect on the incidence and spatial variation of AMI. Results of this study with specific Bayesian statistical analysis support earlier findings of a protective role of Mg and low Ca:Mg ratio against coronary heart disease but do not support the earlier hypothesis of a protective role of Ca.
多项流行病学研究表明，钙和镁与冠心病死亡率及发病率之间存在关联。在这项小区域研究中，我们利用贝叶斯模型和汇总为10公里×10公里网格单元的地理空间数据，研究了芬兰农村地区急性心肌梗死（AMI）风险与当地地下水中钙、镁和铬含量之间的关系。汇总了1983年、1988年或1993年首次发生AMI的14495名35至74岁男性的数据。地球化学数据包括对当地地下水中每种元素的4300次测量。井水镁、钙和铬的中位浓度以及钙镁比分别为2.61毫克/升、12.23毫克/升、0.27微克/升和5.39。镁水平每增加1毫克/升，AMI风险降低4.9%，而钙镁比每增加一个单位，风险增加3.1%。钙和铬对AMI的发病率和空间变异未显示出任何统计学上的显著影响。这项采用特定贝叶斯统计分析的研究结果支持了镁和低钙镁比对冠心病具有保护作用的早期研究结果，但不支持钙具有保护作用的早期假设。
