Zhang Bo, Cohen Joanna, Ferrence Roberta, Rehm Jürgen
Ontario Tobacco Research Unit, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Am J Prev Med. 2006 Jun;30(6):474-9. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2006.02.001.
Although the majority of smokers initiate smoking during their teenage years, significant rates of initiation occur among young adults. Adolescents are more price sensitive than adults, but little is known about the impact of tobacco taxation on smoking initiation among young adults. Using a longitudinal design, this study examined the impact of decreased cigarette price, resulting from tobacco tax cuts, on smoking initiation among Canadian young adults aged 20 to 24 years.
Using Statistics Canada's National Population Health Survey longitudinal file, this study examined young adults who did not smoke at baseline in 1994-1995 (n=636, representing over 1 million young adults) and who were reassessed at follow-up (1996-1997). Multivariable logistic regression analysis using bootstrap weights was conducted to estimate the impact of decreased cigarette price on smoking initiation. The analysis controlled for the potential confounding effect of sociodemographic and tobacco control variables. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Price elasticity was estimated. Analyses were conducted in 2003 and 2004.
Approximately 10% of young adults had initiated smoking at follow-up. Decreased cigarette price was significantly associated with higher smoking initiation (adjusted odds ratio per $1 decrease for a carton of cigarettes=1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.01-1.32, p=0.042). Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. Price elasticity was 3.36 (95% CI=0.07-6.75).
Young adults are sensitive to cigarette prices. Reductions in cigarette prices will lead to increased smoking initiation among this group. Tobacco taxation should be an effective strategy to reduce smoking initiation among young adults.
尽管大多数吸烟者在青少年时期开始吸烟，但在年轻成年人中也有相当比例的人开始吸烟。青少年比成年人对价格更敏感，但关于烟草税对年轻成年人开始吸烟的影响知之甚少。本研究采用纵向设计，考察了因烟草税削减导致的卷烟价格下降对20至24岁加拿大年轻成年人开始吸烟的影响。
利用加拿大统计局的全国人口健康调查纵向档案，本研究考察了1994 - 1995年基线时不吸烟的年轻成年人（n = 636，代表超过100万年轻成年人），并在随访时（1996 - 1997年）对其进行重新评估。使用自加权的多变量逻辑回归分析来估计卷烟价格下降对开始吸烟的影响。该分析控制了社会人口统计学和烟草控制变量的潜在混杂效应。进行了敏感性分析。估计了价格弹性。分析于2003年和2004年进行。
随访时约10%的年轻成年人开始吸烟。卷烟价格下降与更高的开始吸烟率显著相关（每包香烟价格每降低1美元的调整优势比 = 1.15，95%置信区间[CI] = 1.01 - 1.32，p = 0.042）。敏感性分析显示了相似的结果。价格弹性为3.36（95% CI = 0.07 - 6.75）。
年轻成年人对卷烟价格敏感。卷烟价格降低将导致该群体中开始吸烟的人数增加。烟草税应是减少年轻成年人开始吸烟的有效策略。
