Chmielewski Frank M, Müller Antje, Küchler Wilfried
Institute of Crop Sciences, Subdivision of Agricultural Meteorology, Humboldt University of Berlin, Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Albrecht-Thaer-Weg 5, 14195 Berlin-Dahlem, Germany.
Int J Biometeorol. 2005 Nov;50(2):96-104. doi: 10.1007/s00484-005-0275-1. Epub 2005 Aug 2.
Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3-27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.
近期的气候变化对世界许多地区的植物生长产生了显著影响。主要自20世纪80年代末以来，气温升高导致物候期提前，进而使整个生长季节延长。因此，了解植物将如何应对未来气候变化很有意思。在本研究中，已开发出简单的物候模型来估计气候变化对萨克森州自然植被的影响。这些估计基于萨克森州的区域气候情景。结果表明，物候期的变化在未来可能会持续。由于冬季和夏季气温的明显变化，主要是春季和夏季阶段将提前。春季物候期，如展叶或开花，呈现出最强的变化趋势。根据物种不同，到2050年这些物候期的平均时间可能会提前3至27天。秋季物候期变化相对较小。因此，单株树木的年生长期将进一步延长，主要是因为春季阶段的提前。夏季和秋季频繁的干旱可以抵消树木提前展叶的影响，因为在这种情况下，叶片变色和落叶会提前几周开始。在这种情况下，生长期实际上不会延长，而是会转移到年初。
