From science to policy--when are scientific results certain enough?

The amount of scientific findings linking air pollution with adverse health effects is continuously growing and indicates a need for action to improve air quality. On 21 September 2005, the European Commission published a new draft directive on air quality, as part of the Thematic Strategy on air pollution. This is a long-term plan on how to reduce air pollution in the European Union in the next 15 years. Immediately after its release, the Commission received criticism for not going far enough from various instances, such as research institutions and nongovernmental organizations concerned with health and environmental effects of air pollution. One policy argument for not taking full measures was the argument of scientific uncertainty. In light of this air quality strategy and the corresponding criticism which ensued, the present article discusses how the ambiguity of scientific uncertainty may contribute to impeding the process of translating scientific findings into concrete policy options. As complete certainty is likely to never be achieved, the question arises whether it is possible to determine and agree on clear and applicable definitions of certain levels of scientific certainty. The case referred to in this paper clearly demonstrates a situation with discordant views on the uncertainty of scientific findings. More discussion on how to define scientific uncertainty and how to deal with it would be beneficial for both the scientific and the political communities. Finally, it is important to recognize that scientific evidence is not the only driver influencing policy decisions.