D'Souza R M, Hall G, Becker N G
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Jan;136(1):56-64. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008229. Epub 2007 Mar 12.
This study compares the seasonality of rotavirus diarrhoeal hospital admissions and its relationship to climatic factors across three Australian cities. Weekly admission of rotavirus diarrhoea (1993-2003) in children aged <5 years and weekly average temperature and relative humidity for each city were modelled using a log-linear model with a cubic trend and season. Interactions were included to test for differences in the effect of temperature and humidity between seasons and between cities. Admissions of rotavirus diarrhoea peaked in winter and spring and were lowest in summer. Higher temperature and humidity in the previous week were associated with a decrease in rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in three cities. The effects of both temperature and humidity on rotavirus admissions in Brisbane differed across seasons. Strategies to combat outbreaks of rotavirus diarrhoea should take climatic factors and seasonal effects into consideration to plan for the excess seasonal hospital admissions.
本研究比较了澳大利亚三个城市轮状病毒腹泻住院病例的季节性及其与气候因素的关系。采用具有三次趋势和季节的对数线性模型,对1993 - 2003年5岁以下儿童轮状病毒腹泻的每周住院病例以及每个城市的每周平均温度和相对湿度进行建模。纳入交互项以检验季节之间以及城市之间温度和湿度影响的差异。轮状病毒腹泻住院病例在冬季和春季达到峰值,在夏季最低。前一周较高的温度和湿度与三个城市轮状病毒腹泻住院病例的减少有关。温度和湿度对布里斯班轮状病毒住院病例的影响在不同季节有所不同。应对轮状病毒腹泻暴发的策略应考虑气候因素和季节效应,以应对季节性住院病例过多的情况。