Drozdovitch V, Maceika E, Khrouch V, Zvonova I, Vlasov O, Bouville A, Cardis E
International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2007;127(1-4):540-3. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncm360. Epub 2007 Jul 18.
Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and unshared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) unshared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7.
对白俄罗斯和俄罗斯受切尔诺贝利事故放射性沉降物污染地区的年轻人进行了一项甲状腺癌病例对照研究，该研究涵盖了2239名受试者，对他们的甲状腺个体辐射剂量进行了重建。虽然剂量重建过程提供了每个受试者剂量的点估计值，但显然这些剂量计算存在不确定性。已确定估计个体剂量时不确定性的以下主要来源：(1) 与剂量测定模型参数相关的共享和非共享误差；以及 (2) 与个人访谈信息的变异性、可靠性和能力相关的非共享误差。除了为剂量测定模型的参数设定适当的分布外，还定义了个体间相关性以考虑共享误差。通过应用蒙特卡罗模拟，为每个受试者获得了一组近似对数正态分布的甲状腺剂量；发现这些分布的几何标准差在个体之间从1.7到3.7不等。
